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Carskiey Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.7

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Carskiey Bay Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the variation of swells directed at Carskiey Bay through a typical northern hemisphere autumn, based on 5788 NWW3 model predictions since 2008 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Carskiey Bay, and at Carskiey Bay the best grid node is 29 km away (18 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred 52% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Carskiey Bay and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Carskiey Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Carskiey Bay run for about 1.0% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.