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Carriagem ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Carriagem Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram illustrates the range of swells directed at Carriagem over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6931 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Carriagem. In the case of Carriagem, the best grid node is 22 km away (14 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 6% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Carriagem and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Carriagem, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Carriagem run for about 94% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.