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Carriagem ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Carriagem Swell Statistics, December: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the combination of swells directed at Carriagem through an average December, based on 2457 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Carriagem. In the case of Carriagem, the best grid node is 22 km away (14 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened only 8% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Carriagem and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Carriagem, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical December, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Carriagem run for about 92% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.