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Blue Duck Stream ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.8

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Surf Report Feed

Blue Duck Stream Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture illustrates the variation of swells directed at Blue Duck Stream through an average southern hemisphere summer and is based upon 8485 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Blue Duck Stream. In the case of Blue Duck Stream, the best grid node is 30 km away (19 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 31% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ENE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Blue Duck Stream and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Blue Duck Stream, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Blue Duck Stream run for about 69% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.