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Black Rock ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.5
Consistency of Surf: 3.5
Difficulty Level: 3.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.9

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Black Rock Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture shows the range of swells directed at Black Rock through an average southern hemisphere autumn and is based upon 8682 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Black Rock, and at Black Rock the best grid node is 44 km away (27 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 57% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ENE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Black Rock and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Black Rock, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical southern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Black Rock run for about 43% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.