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Black Middens ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.7

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Black Middens Swell Statistics, February: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart shows the range of swells directed at Black Middens through an average February, based on 2208 NWW3 model predictions since 2009 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Black Middens. In this particular case the best grid node is 27 km away (17 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 50% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NNE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Black Middens and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Black Middens, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical February, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Black Middens run for about 10% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.

FEATURE UPDATE: we now show red swell icons for 'open sea' swells that are travelling in an unfavourable direction for the surf break. In places, these swells may still wrap around coastlines and produce smaller waves at some breaks. They are also significant for windsurfers and other water users that tend to venture further off-shore.