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Armadale Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Armadale Bay Swell Statistics, Autumn: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the variation of swells directed at Armadale Bay through an average northern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 7252 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Armadale Bay. In the case of Armadale Bay, the best grid node is 50 km away (31 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 13% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Armadale Bay and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Armadale Bay, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical northern hemisphere autumn, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Armadale Bay run for about 87% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.