Armadale Bay Swell Statistics, June: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Armadale Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical June. It is based on 2306 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the N. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 27% of the time, equivalent to 8 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal June but 8% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Armadale Bay is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Armadale Bay about 27% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 49% of the time. This is means that we expect 23 days with waves in a typical June, of which 8 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.