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Arenillas Negras ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Arenillas Negras Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the variation of swells directed at Arenillas Negras through a typical southern hemisphere spring, based on 7252 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Arenillas Negras. In the case of Arenillas Negras, the best grid node is 19 km away (12 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These occurred only 1.1% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Arenillas Negras and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Arenillas Negras, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Arenillas Negras run for about 99% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.