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Aoshima ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Aoshima Swell Statistics, December: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure describes the variation of swells directed at Aoshima over a normal December. It is based on 2953 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Aoshima. In this particular case the best grid node is 34 km away (21 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 30% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNW. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Aoshima and away from the coast. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Aoshima, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical December, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Aoshima run for about 70% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.