Anse Cafard Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Anse Cafard that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was E, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 0.2% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Anse Cafard is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Anse Cafard about 0.2% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 28% of the time. This is means that we expect 9 days with waves in a typical October, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.