Anna Bay-Morna Point Swell Statistics, November: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Anna Bay-Morna Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical November. It is based on 2387 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 22% of the time, equivalent to 7 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal November but 18% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 18%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Anna Bay-Morna Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Anna Bay-Morna Point about 22% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 21% of the time. This is means that we expect 13 days with waves in a typical November, of which 7 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.