This image shows only the swells directed at Anna Bay-Morna Point that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March and is based upon 1724 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was ESE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the E. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 28% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal March but 24% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 24%, equivalent to (7 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Anna Bay-Morna Point is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Anna Bay-Morna Point about 28% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 25% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical March, of which 9 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.