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Aln Estuary ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0

Overall: 2.6

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Surf Report Feed

Aln Estuary Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

This image shows the range of swells directed at Aln Estuary through a typical northern hemisphere winter and is based upon 6928 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Aln Estuary. In the case of Aln Estuary, the best grid node is 14 km away (9 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These were forecast only 50% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WSW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Aln Estuary and offshore. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Aln Estuary, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average northern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Aln Estuary run for about 27% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.