Noosa - Alexandria Bay Swell Statistics, July: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Noosa - Alexandria Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical July. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was S, whereas the the most common wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 17% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal July but 7% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 7%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Noosa - Alexandria Bay is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Noosa - Alexandria Bay about 17% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 32% of the time. This is means that we expect 15 days with waves in a typical July, of which 5 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.