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Aan ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Aan Swell Statistics, Autumn: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Aan that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere autumn. It is based on 8682 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 26% of the time, equivalent to 24 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere autumn but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Aan is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Aan about 26% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 53% of the time. This is means that we expect 72 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere autumn, of which 24 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.