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Juan Tornillo Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)
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Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

This picture shows the combination of swells directed at Juan Tornillo through a typical February, based on 3120 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Juan Tornillo. In the case of Juan Tornillo, the best grid node is 76 km away (47 miles). The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred only 9% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast. The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Juan Tornillo and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Juan Tornillo, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average February, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Juan Tornillo run for about 91% of the time.

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Also see Juan Tornillo wind stats

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