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15th Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

15th Street Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture illustrates the variation of swells directed at 15th Street through an average January, based on 2372 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind or surf right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about 15th Street. In the case of 15th Street, the best grid node is 21 km away (13 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but lacks direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 5% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from 15th Street and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at 15th Street, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical January, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at 15th Street run for about 95% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.