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15th Street ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.8

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Surf Report Feed

15th Street Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at 15th Street that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7266 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 45% of the time, equivalent to 41 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal northern hemisphere summer but 3% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 3%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that 15th Street is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at 15th Street about 45% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 41% of the time. This is means that we expect 78 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere summer, of which 41 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.