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Waipapa Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Waipapa Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The figure shows the variation of swells directed at Waipapa Bay through an average southern hemisphere winter, based on 8738 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Waipapa Bay, and at Waipapa Bay the best grid node is 33 km away (21 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These happened only 22% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WNW. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Waipapa Bay and offshore. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Waipapa Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical southern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Waipapa Bay run for about 78% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.