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Waipapa Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Waipapa Bay Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

This picture describes the combination of swells directed at Waipapa Bay through a typical southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7765 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Waipapa Bay. In the case of Waipapa Bay, the best grid node is 33 km away (21 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 30% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ENE. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Waipapa Bay and out to sea. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are clean enough to surf at Waipapa Bay, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause surfable waves at Waipapa Bay run for about 70% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.