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Waipapa Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Waipapa Bay Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Waipapa Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere winter. It is based on 8738 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was SE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 37% of the time, equivalent to 34 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal southern hemisphere winter but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Waipapa Bay is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Waipapa Bay about 37% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 41% of the time. This is means that we expect 71 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere winter, of which 34 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.