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Waipapa Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 5.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 4.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Waipapa Bay Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Waipapa Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 33% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October but 11% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 11%, equivalent to (3 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Waipapa Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Waipapa Bay about 33% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 32% of the time. This is means that we expect 20 days with waves in a typical October, of which 10 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.