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Utua Mamao (Atafu) ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 1 vote. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Utua Mamao (Atafu) Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the variation of swells directed at Utua Mamao (Atafu) through an average January, based on 2620 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Utua Mamao (Atafu), and at Utua Mamao (Atafu) the best grid node is 8 km away (5 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 99% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the N. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Utua Mamao (Atafu) and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose graph. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Utua Mamao (Atafu), you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical January, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Utua Mamao (Atafu) run for about 1.0% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.