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Utua Mamao (Atafu) ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 5.0

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 1 vote. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Utua Mamao (Atafu) Swell Statistics, January: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the variation of swells directed at Utua Mamao (Atafu) through an average January and is based upon 2868 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about Utua Mamao (Atafu). In the case of Utua Mamao (Atafu), the best grid node is 8 km away (5 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened only 98% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNE. Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Utua Mamao (Atafu) and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Utua Mamao (Atafu), you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical January, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Utua Mamao (Atafu) run for about 2.0% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.