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Umzumbe ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 2.5
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.5

Overall: 1.7

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Umzumbe Swell Statistics, September: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Umzumbe that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal September. It is based on 2880 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the ESE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 12% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 1.7% of the time in a typical September, equivalent to just one day but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Umzumbe is slightly protected from open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Umzumbe about 12% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 43% of the time. This is means that we expect 16 days with waves in a typical September, of which 4 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.