Surf Forecast Surf Report
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Tolcarne Surf Stats

All swells

(any wind direction)

Good Surf

(light / offshore wind)

The rose diagram shows the range of swells directed at Tolcarne through a typical March. It is based on 3460 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Tolcarne, and at Tolcarne the best grid node is 31 km away (19 miles). The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell sizes and directions, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. These occurred only 8% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast. The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was W (which was the same as the prevailing wind direction). Because the wave model grid is out to sea, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Tolcarne and offshore. We combine these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Tolcarne, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were predicted to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average March, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Tolcarne run for about 71% of the time.

Also see Tolcarne wind stats

Compare Tolcarne with another surf break

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