The Reef Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at The Reef that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal March and is based upon 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red represents the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 1.6% of the time, equivalent to 0 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal March. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that The Reef is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at The Reef about 1.6% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 14% of the time. This is means that we expect 5 days with waves in a typical March, of which 0 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.