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The Patch ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.8
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 1.2
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.6

Overall: 2.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 6 votes. Vote

Surf Report Feed

The Patch Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram shows the variation of swells directed at The Patch over a normal northern hemisphere spring, based on 8052 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the shore so we have chosen the optimum grid node based on what we know about The Patch. In this particular case the best grid node is 29 km away (18 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell sizes and swell direction, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. These were forecast only 71% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the WNW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from The Patch and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at The Patch, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were forecast to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at The Patch run for about 29% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.