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The Bubble ratings
Quality on a good day: 5.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 5.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 4.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

The Bubble Swell Statistics, February: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the combination of swells directed at The Bubble through a typical February. It is based on 2664 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the shore so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about The Bubble. In the case of The Bubble, the best grid node is 28 km away (17 miles).

The rose diagram shows the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 1.5% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red represents the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from The Bubble and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose diagram. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at The Bubble, you can select a similar diagram that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. Over an average February, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at The Bubble run for about 98% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.