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Shell Island ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.3

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Surf Report Feed

Shell Island Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Shell Island that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October and is based upon 2477 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SE, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 14% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Shell Island is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Shell Island about 14% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 11% of the time. This is means that we expect 8 days with waves in a typical October, of which 4 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.