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Secrets ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 4.0
Difficulty Level: 3.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.0

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Secrets Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Secrets that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell was forecast.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 1.8% of the time in a typical October, equivalent to just one day but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Secrets is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Secrets about 29% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 67% of the time. This is means that we expect 30 days with waves in a typical October, of which 9 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.