San Pedrito (Todos Santos) Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at San Pedrito (Todos Santos) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 5048 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 67% of the time, equivalent to 61 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal northern hemisphere winter but 21% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 21%, equivalent to (19 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that San Pedrito (Todos Santos) is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at San Pedrito (Todos Santos) about 67% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 30% of the time. This is means that we expect 88 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 61 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.