San Pedrito (Todos Santos) Swell Statistics, Winter: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at San Pedrito (Todos Santos) that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal northern hemisphere winter. It is based on 6365 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.
The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 66% of the time, equivalent to 60 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere winter but 18% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 18%, equivalent to (16 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that San Pedrito (Todos Santos) is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at San Pedrito (Todos Santos) about 66% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 31% of the time. This is means that we expect 88 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere winter, of which 60 days should be surfable.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.