uk es it fr pt nl
Paunch Reef ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.3
Consistency of Surf: 2.3
Difficulty Level: 2.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 3.3

Overall: 2.9

See all 18 ratings

Based on 3 votes. Vote

Surf Report Feed

Paunch Reef Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Paunch Reef that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal March and is based upon 2716 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 85% of the time, equivalent to 26 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal March but 19% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 19%, equivalent to (6 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Paunch Reef is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Paunch Reef about 85% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 15% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical March, of which 26 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.