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Patricks Point State Park ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.5

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Surf Report Feed

Patricks Point State Park Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Patricks Point State Park that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell happens.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 16% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal October but 7% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 7%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Patricks Point State Park is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Patricks Point State Park about 16% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 78% of the time. This is means that we expect 29 days with waves in a typical October, of which 5 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.