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Outer Cut Swell Statistics, Summer: All Swell – Any Wind

This chart illustrates the variation of swells directed at Outer Cut through an average southern hemisphere summer and is based upon 7045 NWW3 model predictions since 2008 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast surf and wind right at the coast so we have chosen the most applicable grid node based on what we know about Outer Cut, and at Outer Cut the best grid node is 35 km away (22 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These occurred 59% of the time. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red represents largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NNW (which was the same as the most common wind direction). Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Outer Cut and away from the coast. We group these with the no surf category of the bar chart. To simplify things we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are good for surfing at Outer Cut, you can view an alternative image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. In a typical southern hemisphere summer, swells large enough to cause clean enough to surf waves at Outer Cut run for about 13% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.