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Natural Bridges State Beach ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 3.0

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Surf Report Feed

Natural Bridges State Beach Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Natural Bridges State Beach that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 13% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October but 12% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 12%, equivalent to (4 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Natural Bridges State Beach is quite sheltered from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Natural Bridges State Beach about 13% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 33% of the time. This is means that we expect 14 days with waves in a typical October, of which 4 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.