Mompiche Swell Statistics, March: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds
This image shows only the swells directed at Mompiche that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical March. It is based on 2220 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red shows highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.
The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was WNW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the SW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 14% of the time, equivalent to 4 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal March. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Mompiche is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Mompiche about 14% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 10% of the time. This is means that we expect 7 days with waves in a typical March, of which 4 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.