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Mesa ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.0
Consistency of Surf: 3.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 3.0

Overall: 2.4

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

Mesa Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Mesa that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was WSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 32% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds we think that that clean surf can be found at Mesa about 32% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 59% of the time. This is means that we expect 28 days with waves in a typical October, of which 10 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.