This image shows only the swells directed at Magics that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical June. It is based on 1600 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.
The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 34% of the time, equivalent to 10 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal June. Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds we calculate that clean surf can be found at Magics about 34% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 37% of the time. This is means that we expect 21 days with waves in a typical June, of which 10 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.