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La Concha ratings
Quality on a good day: 1.0
Consistency of Surf: 2.0
Difficulty Level: 1.0
Crowds: 2.0

Overall: 2.2

See all 18 ratings

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Surf Report Feed

La Concha Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at La Concha that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8052 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the highest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NW (which was the same as the dominant wind direction). The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 36% of the time, equivalent to 33 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal northern hemisphere spring but 5% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 5%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that La Concha is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at La Concha about 36% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 58% of the time. This is means that we expect 86 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere spring, of which 33 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.