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Rate Kaiaua Bay


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Kaiaua Bay Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Kaiaua Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February. It is based on 2664 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was E, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the ENE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 19% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal February but 8% of the time you can expect swell in the range 1.3-2m (4-6.5ft) 8%, equivalent to (2 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Kaiaua Bay is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Kaiaua Bay about 19% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 42% of the time. This is means that we expect 17 days with waves in a typical February, of which 5 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.