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Surf Report Feed

Jelly Bowl Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at Jelly Bowl that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2480 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell occurs.

The diagram suggests that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the WNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 2.0% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to happen in a normal October. Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Jelly Bowl is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Jelly Bowl about 2.0% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 6% of the time. This is means that we expect 2 days with waves in a typical October, of which 1 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.