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Jelly Bowl Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Jelly Bowl that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the W. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 1.8% of the time, equivalent to 1 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to occur in a normal October. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that Jelly Bowl is slightly protected from open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Jelly Bowl about 1.8% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 6% of the time. This is means that we expect 2 days with waves in a typical October, of which 1 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.