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Japs ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.3
Consistency of Surf: 2.7
Difficulty Level: 3.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 3.3

Overall: 3.2

See all 18 ratings

Based on 3 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Japs Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Japs that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7765 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red illustrates the biggest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell happens.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 22% of the time, equivalent to 20 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only arise 0.6% of the time in a typical southern hemisphere summer, equivalent to just one day but 8% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 8%, equivalent to (7 days). Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Japs is exposed to open water swells, we calculate that clean surf can be found at Japs about 22% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 75% of the time. This is means that we expect 88 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere summer, of which 20 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.