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Jakes ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.5
Consistency of Surf: 4.5
Difficulty Level: 4.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.5

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Jakes Swell Statistics, October: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Jakes that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal October. It is based on 2976 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours represent increasing wave sizes. Very small swells of less than 0.5m (1.5 feet) high are shown in blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the most common swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was SW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 70% of the time, equivalent to 22 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 3% of the time in a typical October, equivalent to just one day but 35% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 35%, equivalent to (11 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Jakes is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Jakes about 70% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 30% of the time. This is means that we expect 31 days with waves in a typical October, of which 22 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.