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J-Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.2
Consistency of Surf: 3.7
Difficulty Level: 2.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.7

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 6 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

J-Bay Swell Statistics, Summer: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

The rose diagram shows only the swells directed at J-Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal southern hemisphere summer. It is based on 7765 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell was forecast.

The diagram implies that the most common swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 29% of the time, equivalent to 26 days. Expect open water swells to exceed >3m (>10ft) 4% of the time (4 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that J-Bay is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at J-Bay about 29% of the time and that surf is spoilt by onshore wind 57% of the time. This is means that we expect 78 days with waves in a typical southern hemisphere summer, of which 26 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.