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J-Bay ratings
Quality on a good day: 4.2
Consistency of Surf: 3.7
Difficulty Level: 2.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.7

Overall: 3.5

See all 18 ratings

Based on 6 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

J-Bay Swell Statistics, February: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at J-Bay that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical February and is based upon 2440 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and biggest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell was forecast.

The diagram suggests that the dominant swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was SSW, whereas the the prevailing wind blows from the SSE. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 32% of the time, equivalent to 9 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only occur 4% of the time in a typical February, equivalent to just one day but 24% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 24%, equivalent to (7 days). Taking into account the fraction of these swells that coincided with predicted offshore winds, and given the fact that J-Bay is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at J-Bay about 32% of the time and that surf is blown out by onshore wind 55% of the time. This is means that we expect 24 days with waves in a typical February, of which 9 days should be clean enough to surf.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.