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Goat Island Reef ratings
Quality on a good day: 2.3
Consistency of Surf: 1.3
Difficulty Level: 1.7
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 2.7

Overall: 1.9

See all 18 ratings

Based on 3 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Goat Island Reef Swell Statistics, Winter: All Swell – Any Wind

The graph illustrates the combination of swells directed at Goat Island Reef over a normal southern hemisphere winter and is based upon 8736 NWW3 model predictions since 2006 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coast so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Goat Island Reef, and at Goat Island Reef the best grid node is 31 km away (19 miles).

The rose diagram describes the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These happened 74% of the time. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and red shows largest swells greater than >3m (>10ft). In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the dominant swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NE, whereas the the most common wind blows from the WSW. Because the wave model grid is away from the coast, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Goat Island Reef and out to sea. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To keep it simple we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Goat Island Reef, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical southern hemisphere winter, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Goat Island Reef run for about 5% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.