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Goat Island/Mokuauia ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.8
Consistency of Surf: 3.8
Difficulty Level: 3.2
Wind and Kite Surfing: 4.5
Crowds: 4.0

Overall: 3.3

See all 18 ratings

Based on 4 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Goat Island/Mokuauia Swell Statistics, Spring: All Swell – Any Wind

The rose diagram describes the range of swells directed at Goat Island/Mokuauia over a normal northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 8682 NWW3 model predictions since 2007 (values every 3 hours). The wave model does not forecast wind and surf right at the coastline so we have chosen the best grid node based on what we know about Goat Island/Mokuauia, and at Goat Island/Mokuauia the best grid node is 38 km away (24 miles).

The rose diagram illustrates the distribution of swell directions and swell sizes, while the graph at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. These were forecast only 45% of the time. Green and yellow illustrate increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In each graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how often that size swell occurs.

The diagram indicates that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the biggest spokes, was NE, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the ENE. Because the wave model grid is offshore, sometimes a strong offshore wind blows largest waves away from Goat Island/Mokuauia and away from the coast. We lump these in with the no surf category of the bar chart. To avoid confusion we don't show these in the rose plot. Because wind determines whether or not waves are surfable at Goat Island/Mokuauia, you can load a different image that shows only the swells that were expected to coincide with glassy or offshore wind conditions. During a typical northern hemisphere spring, swells large enough to cause good for surfing waves at Goat Island/Mokuauia run for about 55% of the time.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.