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Ferrel ratings
Quality on a good day: 3.5
Consistency of Surf: 3.5
Difficulty Level: 2.0
Wind and Kite Surfing: 1.0
Crowds: 3.5

Overall: 3.1

See all 18 ratings

Based on 2 votes. Vote


Surf Report Feed

Ferrel Swell Statistics, Spring: Surf with Light or Offshore Winds

This image shows only the swells directed at Ferrel that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions through a typical northern hemisphere spring. It is based on 6580 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours illustrate increasing wave sizes. Blue shows the smallest swells, less that 0.5m (1.5 feet) high. Green and yellow show increasing swell sizes and red shows the largest swells, greater than >3m (>10ft). In both graphs, the area of any colour is proportional to how commonly that size swell occurs.

The diagram implies that the dominant swell direction, shown by the longest spokes, was NW, whereas the the most common wind blows from the NNW. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 18% of the time, equivalent to 16 days. Open water swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) only happen 0.6% of the time in a typical northern hemisphere spring, equivalent to just one day but 6% of the time we expect swell in the range 2-3m (6.5-10ft) 6%, equivalent to (5 days). Taking into account the proportion of these swells that coincided with expected offshore winds, and given the fact that Ferrel is exposed to open water swells, we estimate that clean surf can be found at Ferrel about 18% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 74% of the time. This is means that we expect 84 days with waves in a typical northern hemisphere spring, of which 16 days should be surfable.

IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.