This image shows only the swells directed at Fernandina Beach Pier that coincided with light winds or offshore conditions over a normal July. It is based on 1736 predictions, one every 3 hours. The direction of the spokes show where quality surf generating swell comes from. Five colours show increasing wave sizes. The smallest swells, less than 0.5m (1.5 feet), high are coloured blue. Green and yellow represent increasing swell sizes and highest swells greater than >3m (>10ft) are shown in red. In either graph, the area of any colour is proportional to how frequently that size swell happens.
The diagram suggests that the prevailing swell direction, shown by the largest spokes, was E, whereas the the dominant wind blows from the S. The chart at the bottom shows the same thing but without direction information. For example, swells larger than 1.5 feet (0.5m) coincided with good wind conditions 15% of the time, equivalent to 5 days. Open sea swells exceeding >3m (>10ft) are unlikely to arise in a normal July. Taking into account the ratio of these swells that coincided with forecast offshore winds, and given the fact that Fernandina Beach Pier is exposed to open water swells, we think that that clean surf can be found at Fernandina Beach Pier about 15% of the time and that surf is messed up by onshore wind 22% of the time. This is means that we expect 11 days with waves in a typical July, of which 5 days should be clean enough to surf.
IMPORTANT: Beta version feature! Swell heights are open water values from NWW3. There is no attempt to model near-shore effects. Coastal wave heights will generally be less, especially if the break does not have unobstructed exposure to the open ocean.